Variance of Poker

Whether you like or not, variance is a part of the game. There will be periods where it seems like you just can't win a hand, or you just can't get a playable hand. That has been the story of my life the last few days. I've still cashed in quite a few sit and go's, but have been plagued the last few days with the dreaded variance. I've played in 46 sit and go's over the past week. I've cashed in 20 of them, and won only 6. More importantly, I was the bubble boy 12 times. It sucks when you go out on the bubble. It has to be the worst feeling in the world.

So, back to variance. Statistically speaking, you will be dealt a hand a certain percentage of times, and each hand will win a certain percentage of the time. Everyone has had periods where it seems like you get dealt a winning hand constantly. I've had tournaments where I was dealt aces and kings four times each, as well as other premium pairs and big suited connectors. The times when you are getting hit by the deck make poker an easy game to beat. However, those are the rare instances of the game. Most of the time you will be dealt marginal hands, and be put in tough decisions. That's where variance comes in. Variance is simply the up and downswings that both your bankroll and the number of playable hands you receive.

My only advice to you when you are running cold, is to stay active and try to pick your spots. Don't let yourself get blinded off or get bullied by a LAG. During my current run, I've got my money in as a dog, but that's what you have to do sometimes in poker. Most of the time I don't like playing two card chicken, and would prefer to play after the flop. But there are times when your stack size, compared to the blind force you to get in there and gamble. When you are put in these situations, you want to find a hand that is unlikely to be dominated. I personally move pairs and small suited connectors up in my hand rankings. I don't want to make a move when short with weak aces or kings. Most of the time, if you get called, it will be by someone with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ....those are the kinds of hands that you don't want to be facing if you're pushing with A8 or K7. So, if I get a small suited connector, like 89 or a pair, I'm willing to push in. Remember, you have to take your current M into account, and how many and what kind of players are left to act behind you. So, stay aggressive and make a move when you can.