Week in Review

So this week has gone pretty well so far. I reviewed my hand history for the past few days, and was shocked how many times I had to get lucky to win, and how many times I got unlucky to lose big pots. A couple of days ago I had an 80% win at showdown rate, and only cashed for 2 BB's. Then tonight I run at 8.3 BB/100. Go figure. Another funny stat is how consistent my stats have been. I've been running a 16/8 all month long with about a 3.6% 3 bet. My aggression factor has been up around 4 and down to about 1.8 at times, but pretty consistent for the most part. So the month has gone pretty well. I'm up about $300, not including rakeback. Not too bad, especially since I had a couple of -$250 days.

Here were my goals for this month:
1. Play at least 3 sessions per week, hopefully more so I can get my ironman status back. I haven't qualified for ironman since July.
*I've played every day, some days I only played enough to get 1 point to get the Ironman One a Day bonus. But I have put in at least 3 good sessions a week, so mission accomplished.
2. Get to the next level by March.
*Sadly, I don't think I'll get to the next level by March. Maybe if I can make a late push and not get coolered I might be able to get there. I did notice that I have had to get very lucky to win some pots, just amazing how a lot of players who have horrific stats always seem to have strong hands against me. One guy was running 65/20 and beat me out of some pots with trash. Oh well.
3. Lower the number of bluffs I make and stay out of marginal positions OOP.
*I've done much better on this one lately. Early in the month I was bluffing way too much and should have folded some hands that in retrospect was telegraphed that I was beat.
4. Write at least 1 blog post per week, and upload some hands and graphs.
*Easily accomplished.
5. Finish reading Championship Omaha, Bill Chen's book on poker math, and Owning the Dragon.
*I finished reading Championship Omaha, and started Bill Chen's book. However, I got distracted with Power Hold'em again. I'm almost done with that one, so then it will be back to Bill Chen's. 1/2 accomplished?
6. Play more than 20,000 hands in February.
*With a couple of days left, I should be able to get this one done. I'm at about 18,200 right now, and am pretty sure I'll put in at least two good sessions this week. So that one should be pretty easy to get.

On the poker front, I find it hilarious that there are so many short stackers online lately. I have made it my goal to not give them any action unless I have at least AA or KK. I refuse to get into race situations with AK or small pairs. Sure they can steal my blinds, but if I notice they start getting LAGGY, then I adjust. But for the most part I don't give them any action. I also find it funny how many people with decent stacks call down with underpairs when there is a QJ or K10, or the infamous 910J flop. I have seen it so many times. That and players that float you on the flop with third pair or just two overs. That happened so many times. One time in particular, I flopped bottom two pair with 78. Flop came 1087, so I led out, and got called. Turn brought a king. I thought it might have hit him and went for the check raise, he just called. River brought another king, I checked, he shoved. Easy fold. There's nothing I can beat. Of course he showed down AK. The flop call was iffy, but he had to know that he was in deep with the check raise on the turn, but most players in low limit don't think about these things. They think, "I hit my card, I'm good".

On a side note, there was one guy I had some notes on and knew he was pretty LAGGY, especially when he thought you were weak. He would raise limpers with 66+, A10+, and pretty much any broadway hand. So I limp in with K10 in the cutoff, he's on the button. I knew he had position on me but didn't mind, we were playing deep. Of course he instantly pots it, I just flat. The flop came down 3410 with two spades, and I have the K10 of spades. I check it to him, I didn't want to take the lead away because he CBETs almost 100% of the time. I decided to check raise him small to make it look like a draw. He calls. Turn brings a 2 and I lead out, he calls. River brings a blank and I bet about 2/3 pot, the flush card didn't hit and he instantly shoves on me. I had to think through the hand for a second. If he had A10, a set, or an overpair he would have called the flop raise, but he would have pushed the turn with the flush draw out there. So I knew he didn't have those hands. Next, the possibility that he rivered a set...highly unlikely, especially because the way the hand played out. SO I called and he showed 88. Then he started ranting about how I'm the guy that calls down and doesn't fold...blah blah blah. Look through the hand again and you'll see that he was a huge dog on the flop and decided to stick around.

So some things to consider when you're playing in the low limits.
1. Make sure to watch your opponents. Some play uber nitty, and others play super LAGGY. Get to the players types and what they are capable of. What do they raise with from the various positions? Do they play tight up front and loosen up closer to the button? Do they steal too much or do they just nut peddle?
2. Find out who the calling stations and the semi bluffers are. I saw so many players call down with really weak hands, and others check raise all in with various draws. Some weren't that bad a play, with hands like combination draws or two overs and a flush draw. But for the most part, find out who actually knows how to play post flop.
3. Watch their betting patterns. Most players at the low limits will telegraph their hands with their bets. They will bet small or min with weak hands, while others will shove for 4X pot with strong hands. In my experience the donk bet is usually a big sign of weakness. I don't know how many times I would get bet into from the BB on a pretty dry board, simply raise their bet and watch them fold.
4. Find out who likes to float you on the flop. Some players will float you with all kinds of garbage. Third pair, weak draws, and sometimes absolutely nothing. So find out who the floaters are. If you find yourself in a pot with somebody who likes to float, check your strong hands, and some of your weak hands into them and see what they do. If they have position look to get more info on the turn and keep the pot small. If they are out of position, I have found that if you check the flop, unless it's a wet board, wait for the turn.
5. Finally, most players don't think about your hand, so don't telegraph the strength of your hand with your preflop raise. I saw some players raise 3.5X with marginal hands, and 6+X with premium hands. I always make the same raise, unless there is a preflop raiser in front of me or any limpers. For instance, if I'm first in the pot I make it 3X everytime. I do this with everything from pairs, suited connectors, premium hands, doesn't really matter. I look to play flops, preferably in position. If there is 1 or 2 limpers in front of me, then I raise anywhere from 4.5-6.5X depending on position, hand strength, and who is ahead of me. Finally, if a loose player raises in front of me, let's say the pot 3.5X, I re-raise them to 9.5-10.5X. I have found these are pretty good raises to narrow down their hands. If a TAG raises in front of me, and I'm in late position or the blinds and can't be re-raised I look to play the hands that aren't easily dominated and can hit flops hard. Hands like small pairs, suited connectors are good for this. They are hands that are hit or miss. You'll either flop strong or not and if you don't you can get away from it. Think about it for a second. If you call a TAG with JJ and the flop comes 9 high you may get stuck in the hand. With 22-JJ I'm hoping to flop a set, if not, then I try to keep the pot small. I'll probably call a flop bet, but if another blank comes and he's still firing, it's probably time to get out. Again, it's all read dependent and knowing your opponents. However, if I have 56 SOOTED, and the flop comes 55, 66, 56 or gives me a strong combo draw with a pair, it might be time to get the money in.

So this month is almost over, and it's time to get my goals together for next month. Not sure what my goals are going to be yet, but I'll come up with something. The one thing I do know is that I need to put in some serious volume if I want to make it to the next level. That and stop getting into pots where I have to get lucky, that and not get unlucky. Trust your reads Jay, don't bluff as much, and look to value bet more. If they check call the flop and check the turn, look to either defensive bet or value bet the river. Don't let them control the action and bluff you on the river.

On the life front, the job is horrible...lol. I need to find my career path. Please LORD help me find my way in this world. My wife and I are raising our little puppy, I just wish she would get over this teething phase. I don't know if my hands and feet can take anymore. She is adorable and is getting big fast. She was 5 lbs. when we got her and is up to 22 lbs. in just a little over 2 months. My wife is almost done with her classes, so that will be great for her. I know she has been really stressed out lately, so next week will be a big relief for her. We are heading down to Arizona for Mariners spring training next month. It will be my first trip down, so that is going to be a lot of fun. Other than that, not much else going on. Life is great, now I just have to get my poker life together. GL at the tables.

Getting Closer

So it's been an up and down journey so far. I'll get up a few buyins, then get coolered and lose a stack. It's been quite frustrating to say the least. Of course, I'm to blame for quite a bit of that. Even tonight, I was lucky enough to suck out as a huge dog thinking I had the same hand and was probably splitting the pot. However, when I look back at the hand he had to have me beat. I had been quite active and should have known that they weren't going to play back unless they had a strong hand, especially on the flop. But we'll get to that in just a bit.

So tonight was pretty shitty right off the bat. I couldn't get any hands to hit, and kept running into sets. I would lose big pots, and when I would finally hit something, they would fold. UGH. Pay me off, I gave you some action, give it back. My stats for the session were pretty decent. I ran 16/9 with only a 2% 3 bet, and ran a little more aggressive than normal with a 3.86. I found some great spots to get my money in, but just couldn't hit or again was up against a set.

I'm still experimenting with making the "small ball" raises in cash games, and have actually noticed a lot of other players starting to make the same kind of raises. I don't know if it's because they are sheep or if they respect my game and see some merit to it. Either way, the raises have allowed me to be more proactive in hands when in position and I have got some real value out of some marginal hands, and a lot more value, when they hold up, with my big hands.

The first hour was pretty uneventful. I would come in with 10's in late, get called by the blind, and of course the flop would come AK. I got donk bet into, no need to continue in that hand. I'm sure he had a weak ace and wouldn't fold no matter what. So it was time to ditch it and wait for a better spot. The rest of the time it was just playing position and making them guess and pretty much just chipping up and losing small pots and winning small pots, nothing spectacular.

During the second hour, I was trying to make a play at a tight passive player, which worked out in the end, but I had to get lucky to do it. He raised the pot in late, and I flat called with 5's. Flop came K69 rainbow. He fired 2/3 pot, but I didn't think he had it, mistake number 1. I flatted his CBET, the turn brought a 10 giving two diamonds. He checked, I bet 2/3 pot, he called. River brought presto, for those that don't know a 5. He checked and I bet 1/2 pot, he called and starting ranting in the chat box. Sure it was a suckout, but he played the hand so passively that he was allowing all kinds of draws to get there. Remember the flop was K69, if I flat called with 78 I got there on the turn. If I flatted with 910 I got there on the turn as well. There weren't many hands he could beat that would confidently bet the flop. He took a great line by check calling, but to go nuts about it.

I made a couple of really horrible plays that cost me some big pots as well. I raised AJ in late got 3 bet from SB. Normally I would fold in this situation. Mainly because if you hit your ace your no good, and there really isn't much upside to playing this kind of marginal hand. But I get stubborn and call. Of course an ace hits the flop and I call down his value bets to the river to be up against AK. See what I mean? Most players are not going to 3 bet you OOP with a worse ace, and more than likely you'll be up against a premium hand. Horrible play jay. I continue to just win blinds and small pots, then spew off a buyin in great fashion.

Standard TAG player, raises pot in middle, I flat OTB with AQ SOOTED. Flop comes J104 with two spades, giving me a GS two overs and a flush draw. I figure I'm probably a pretty decent favorite and decide to get the money in as soon as possible, so that a scare card doesn't stall the action. He bets pot, I raise 3X, he shoves, I call. Of course, I'm up against the one hand that I'm a dog to, the dreaded SET of jacks no less. I blank out and lose a buyin. So from there, it was back to the grind and try to get my stack back. I was down a couple of buyins at this point and didn't want to end the night down. But at the same time, I didn't want to spew off more money and be down even more. What to do, what to do? Well, I'm a degenerate, so I decided to play on.

It was really frustrating getting no action and not getting paid off. Not only that, but the sheer number of people that would just flat call raises and float flops was alarming. I know that flop play is what is paramount, but seriously. The hands that were being shown down and getting there on the end was just laughable. So I just had to stay patient. I wanted to play more like a LAGTARD, but I had to keep pulling myself back. This was mainly because everybody was playing so tight. The other frustrating thing was dealing with LAGGY short stackers. The TAGGY ones I don't mind. When they raise, you know what they have. But when a short stacker is playing 35/19, they could have just about anything. So I was looking to play a flop with one. I get K8 SOOTED, and flat his raise IP. Flop comes with a K and two spades, giving me top pair and the flush draw. He shoves, I call, he shows K9, and his kicker ends up playing.

Then the big suckout occurred:

***** Hand History for Game 10721558257 ***** (Full Tilt)$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, February 19, 05:58:58 ET 2009Table Concentration (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the buttonSeat 1: leofederer ( $74.35 USD )
Seat 2: tralafiti ( $10.60 USD )
Seat 3: SAMDOG310 ( $65.25 USD )
Seat 4: - JimmyGleeZ - ( $11.25 USD )
Seat 5: KennyBlanknship ( $24.85 USD )
Seat 6: philtiltalot ( $18.10 USD )
Seat 7: jay311md ( $60.30 USD )
Seat 9: Wenona1 ( $58.10 USD )
tralafiti posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
SAMDOG310 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards
**Dealt to jay311md [ Kd As ]-
JimmyGleeZ - folds
KennyBlanknship folds
philtiltalot folds
jay311md raises [$1.50 USD]
Wenona1 raises [$4.00 USD]
leofederer folds
tralafiti folds
SAMDOG310 folds
jay311md calls [$2.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6h, Ks, 9c ]
jay311md checks
Wenona1 bets [$5.00 USD]
jay311md raises [$18.50 USD]
Wenona1 raises [$49.10 USD]
jay311md calls [$35.60 USD]
Wenona1 shows [Ad, Ah ]
jay311md shows [Kd, As ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]
jay311md wins $113.95 USD from main pot

So that was good fun. Just so you know, Wenona1 was running 28/11 with a 16% 3 bet. If she was playing more like a 15/10 or 12/8 it would be an easy fold. So anywho, I was lucky to win that one, thank you Lord.

So my table image was great, they weren't realizing that I might have been raising quite a bit, but I wasn't calling 3 bets very much. So later on a loose player in middle raises and I'm OTB with KK. I flat, just hoping the flop is pretty dry. Four see the flop which comes QJ8, checks to raiser who CBETs about 1/4 of his stack, so I decide to raise him to get him committed. So long story short, he had AQ and got felted. And now to the metagame aspect.

Remember how I told you about raising quite a bit, but not playing 3 bet pots OOP and really just moving on to the next hand. Well, I had raised A9 off and got 3 bet, so I folded. The very next hand I pick up AA and make the same raise. I get 3 bet again from the BB this time. I 4 bet him enough that if he's going to play, he might as well just put his stack in, which he does. I got AA, he has KK, and hits a four flush on the river, that one hurt a little. Especially because I had set up the play and was ready for the payoff, but it wasn't meant to be. So again, back to grinding my stack up. There was one hand where I rivered top pair then my internet went out, of course I timed out and don't know what won, probably should have been me, but eh.

So I got back on and played a few more orbits. There was one final hand of note. I get A3 off in the BB with 3 limpers. So 4 to the flop and of course I flop GIN. Nothing better than holding a weak ace and flopping the wheel. When the flop comes 245 with two hearts, it's kind of dangerous, but really you're only worrying about two possibilities. 1.) a heart comes on the turn to complete a flush or 2.) you get counterfeited with your straight and have to chop with another ace. So I check it hoping somebody will bet at it. I know that if I lead out, I probably won't get called, because that's a pretty strong move to bet into 3 players OOP with rags on board. What could I be betting? At worst I would be betting a semi bluff with a flush draw and a 3, but more than likely either two pair or the straight. So I check it and the button bets 2/3 pot. I decide to check raise 3.5X to shut out any flush draws. The button re-raises min, and I decide to just go ahead and committ him, he already has about 2/3 of his stack in. He calls off with QQ and is drawing pretty much dead. So that was a great way to end the night.

So in conclusion, I went from down a couple of buyins to up a couple of buyins. With rakeback this week, I am only about 6 buyins from my goal of reaching the next level. I've played about 13,000 hands so far this month. I'm a little short of my goal, but hopefully I can make a late push. On the Ironman front, I can only reach the silver level. Because I was too much of a pussy to put in some volume on a couple of days I didn't have enough points to get to gold or iron. So that will be my new goal for next month. The rakeback is going well, and I just need to get my volume up. With the rakeback and hopefully running well, I should accomplish my goal in no time. So time to get some sleep. GL at the tables.

Quick Update

I've put in a couple more sessions since my last post. One session I kept getting coolered and seriously ran big pairs and top pair top kicker into sets. So that pretty much sucked and ruined the good run I had going. Especially because I was back from the abyss from a couple weeks ago when I tilted off about 5 buyins. So I'm still down a few buyins.

On a more positive note. I've been experimenting with playing Negreanu's small ball theory in cash games. They say that it is really a tournament strategy and doesn't really work very well in cash games. I have to disagree. I was making smallish raises, in comparison to the table and most players that hit the pot button every time. I was getting a lot of action with my hands, and was put into some weird spots. It was pretty cool though, because it really helped my hand reading and helped to maximize some of the value of some marginal hands. I can't seem to win with AK suited or not. For some reason, I either miss the flop entirely or run into a set. It's the damndest thing.

So I've been playing well and trying to play more flops rather than race off chips. So hopefully that will keep going well. So back to work and see where I can get by the end of the month. On a final note, I unistalled Holdem Manager and have reinstalled the new beta. I don't have my old hand histories anymore and sent a request for them from Full Tilt. So hopefully those will come in. If they don't, oh well. It would probably be good for the psyche to start fresh anyway. But I did have a lot of data on some regs that was quite useful. Months about half over and I'm halfway to my goals of making Ironman again and putting in 20K hands. Just have to keep it up.

Quick Post

I played a real short 500 hand session tonight. I won 2 buyins, so I'm only down about 1 buyin. I've gotten off track the last couple of days. I accrued enough points for the first 4 days to get into the Ironman Iron level, but the last couple of days, the volume has completely declined. This is mainly because of my work schedule. They have had me working long hours, and when I get home I'm just not in the mood to play or too tired.

So I put together a little session tonight. I found 6 real soft tables and couldn't believe how bad most of the players played. It was almost laughable. I saw so many weak plays and obvious steal attempts that it was like shooting fish in a barrel. I only lost a couple of pots because I either didn't CBET to protect my hand, or read the player right. I was selectively aggressive tonight, and not outright positionally aggressive. It really helped my game quite a bit and made some nitty plays, but they were right for the situation. I didn't get many big hands, I was looking to play flops in position. So with the rakeback coming in, I just need to get my ass in gear and put some hands together.

I'm almost back to where I was at the beginning of the month. Now it's time to make my move into the bigger games. So with the rakeback and hopefully hitting my goals, I'll get there. Time to get some sleep. GL at the tables.

I'm a Spewtard

I played for a couple of hours, and totally lost my mind. I spewed off about 5 buyins total. I was cruising along and just getting my groove, chipping up little by little. Then I ran into some really weird plays and made some really horrible calls.

Hand #1
I raised with AA, and get two callers. Flop comes A-10-7 rainbow. My dumbass decides to check it to try and trap. Which is the correct play. So everyone else checks as well, 8 of diamonds on the turn, I decide to bet out and get called. Blank diamond on the river, I make a defensive bet with trips and get called by J9 of diamonds. Don't know if he would have called a CBET on the flop, but the way everyone was playing today, probably.

Hand #2
I bring it in with QQ, and shortstacker 3 bets small, I push him in, he calls with AK SOOTED. Of course he hits his ace and I'm down even more.

Hand #3
I bring it in with KK. Player flats before the flop and it comes K-5-4 rainbow again. Again, I decide to slowplay it. I checked it to him and he fires out a pot size bet. I flat call. Turn brings a diamond, I check it with the intention of raising, he checks behind. Diamond on the river, and now I decide to protect the hand...duhhhh!!! dumb move Jay. He raises me with the backdoor flush with A9 SOOOTED.

Hand #4
Player min raises in late, SB flats, I pot it to 8X with the min raise and caller. Raiser calls and the flop comes A-9-3, what a great flop when you got KK in your hand. I checked, he checked. Turn brought a J, and he bets when I checked, I should have just mucked, but I decide to pay him off on the turn and river. Another great play.

Hand #5
Player in early raises the two posters. Second guy flats and I flat from SB with 99. Flop comes 7 high with two spades. CBET from raiser, pretty standard, guy behind calls. This should have raised the alarm bells, but I decide to peel one more street. Turn brings a 2 and the guy behind shoves for almost 2X's the pot. I thought about it for a while, don't know why, should have mucked it. Then called off to see JJ in my face.

Hand #6
I 3 bet a loose aggro player from SB with AQ SOOTED. He flats, flop comes Q-J-8, I CBET, he min raises. I shove, he calls with JJ in the hole. Another great play Jay.

Hand #7
Raise from early with QQ and get two callers. Flop comes Jack high so I CBET about 3/4 the pot, player in late flats. Ace on the turn, I check, he bets 1/2 pot, I check raise shove. He calls with AK off. No pair, no draw. I don't know if it was a great play on his part, just unlucky on mine. Today has really shaken my confidence though.

Hand #8
Finally, the coup de grais. Player UTG raises 4X. He had been playing about 33/17, so I knew his range was fucking huge. So I flat on the button with AK. BB calls as well. Flop comes A-K-Q all clubs. BB checks, UTG bets pot, I raise pot, knowing he probably has a club maybe a weak ace, but not much. BB shoves in for a little more than a min raise. I call off and look at J10 of hearts. He flopped the joint and now I only had 4 or less outs. UGH!!!!

I need to really think about the hand, and even if I don't like it, but my gut tells me to fold, I should follow my instincts. So many times tonight, I had a feeling I was beat, but kept spewing. So back to work in just a bit, I'm now down about 1 buyin since I came back, 5 for today.

QUICK UPDATE:
I played one more session last night. Another 1k hands. I ended up 1 buyin, so 1 down 4 to go to get even. I played a pretty TAGGY 14/10 style, and CBET about 70%. My 3bets were down a little, but mostly because the last session stuck me a bit. So I throttled back the aggression and looked to get more value bets in. Not only that, but I was waiting for the turn to make moves rather than the flop. This was because I noticed a lot of players either floating or overvaluing draws and pairs. If a scare card or a blank came on the turn, then I would judge what to do, depending on position of course. So it went pretty well. My goal is to make Ironman again this month. Hopefully Iron, but Gold would work just as well. SO I need to put another session in tonight, since I chose the shortest month of the year to accomplish this. GL at the tables.