BRRRRRR!!!!

I can't believe how cold decked I'm getting right now. Everytime the game gets short handed, or I get deep in a tourney, I go completely card dead. Not only that, but people are drawing out on me left and right. I have had so many people drawing to 4 or fewer outs and getting there. I was in the Fifty-fifty tonight. I have 99 in the small blind and it's relatively early in the tourney. Everybody at the table is playing pretty tight. There's a small raise from middle position and 3 people call. It comes to me and I can either fold (not with the odds I'm getting), raise to eliminate weak hands (how many are going to fold? I then have to play a small pair OOP, not a good reason to raise here), or flat call (best choice). I flat call and know that being out of position with so many people, if I flop a 9 I can double through. So I flat call, as does the big blind. The flop comes 9-6-4...GIN!!! A lot of players would check-raise in this spot. However, I believe that leading out is by far the best play. Most people will put you on a draw or a hand like A9 or K9. So I lead out and everyone folds but the last guy, he flat calls. The turn brings a 2. I only have about 2/3 of the pot left. So I shove all-in and he calls. I show top set, he shows AA. It's just funny how people don't think about the hand and just seem to play on auto pilot. So sure he has AA, a very strong hand PRE-FLOP. However, you have to play the hand after the flop. AA against 6 people on that kind of flop, you might as well chuck your AA out the window, especially if somebody is betting out and leading on the turn to your flat call. The only hands he could be beating are a draw or an overplayed 9. So, long story short, he rivers an ace and I'm gone.
It has been going that way for about a week now. I just checked my stats and I have lost so many sit and go's and tourneys to weak draws and overplayed hands. I got check-raised by a LAG with third pair and no draw. Of course he got there on the end. What's funny is that everytime the money has gone in, I have known that I had the best of it, but the little hairs on the back of my neck keep tingling. Then BAM, there's the suckout card. It's been so frustrating. 2:1, 3:1, 21:1, I have lost just about everyway possible. The other big frustration has been going card dead deep in tourneys. I have made it to the top 1/3 of tourneys and just can't pick up any kind of hand. I've tried playing off my image, but it seems like everyone else is getting my share of the cards. I was sitting about average and raised from middle position. I hadn't raised a hand in about 3 orbits, so I thought my raise would get some respect, WRONG! I get shoved for 10X's my bet. HMMMM, he obviously has a hand like 77-JJ, maybe AK or AQ. It's just annoying and frustrating. In the last tourney I played, the final 65 hands I had, the best hands I saw were 33, A4 suited, and QJ off. That's it, everything else was 23 off, 73, 84, K4, 104, and other trash hands. I didn't see any suited connectors or gappers, didn't see two big face cards, no aces what so ever, and no pocket pairs. Hopefully things will turn around soon, my luck has to turn around sometime soon.
In a multi-table tourney you have to catch cards sometime, preferably at the end of the tourney. If you catch cards early in a tourney, you might double through or build a chip lead, but the chip leader usually does not last. You have to get some hands. There is nothing you can do about it otherwise. You can bluff some pots and you can steal blinds from time to time. But eventually, you have to put some hands together. A lot of low limit players put way too much emphasis on bluffing. I saw one guy, Bigranger777, go from a very big stack to out because he kept calling allins with very marginal hands, called a lot of raises OOP with very marginal hands, and overvalued pairs and draws. If I could have caught any kind of hand, I probably would have made some good runs tonight. But it just wasn't meant to be. So hopefully tomorrow will go better. Things have to turn around soon.

Another Typical Day

OMG....I can't believe the sheer number of suckouts and beats I have taken today. It is unreal. Below I am going to post some of the beats I have taken and maybe I'll find a way I could have played the hands better. For the most part, I have just run into some very loose players, who I trapped badly by the way, and they get there in the end. Most of the hands the villain was a HUGE underdog to win. Not just a coin flip situation, but a really big dog to win.
HAND #1
I came in for a standard raise, and got re-raised by the big blind. The big blind had been three betting quite a bit and I didn't really want to get too frisky with the hand before the flop, especially with the hitchhiker. His re-raise was really small, so I decided to see the flop. Sure enough I flop a 10. There's no draw out, except 89, but I know he's not raising with that. More than likely he has exactly what he had. He overbets the pot and shoves and gets there in the end.
HAND #2
This one was probably the most frustrating. We are on the bubble. Again, very loose player. I three bet him a few times, once with KK and got shoved then rivered by A9 off. The other times I was light, so I had to drop the hand to his shove. So I started playing flops with him. Then this hand came up. He makes a pretty standard raise from the button. So his range is pretty much any two big cards, any ace, any pair, probably any connected cards above a 7. I get KJ suited and since I'm out of position, want to see the flop. Again, I flop top two and decide to check-raise all in. I ususally don't check-raise, but I know he will bet just about any flop. There's a couple of broadway draws, but I know I'm a huge favorite to win. So we get the money in, and sure enough, he gets there on the river.
HAND #3
This one is simply hilarious. First, look at the chip stacks. There is a short stack with only about 4 big blinds left, and he's going through the blinds shortly. The short stack has been playing very passive and is sure to blind out soon. Second, I have the big blind covered, and have not made many moves at him. So I get a pocket pair and looked over at the short stack. I knew that without AA or KK, maybe even QQ, JJ, or AK, he's not going to call. So I push on him, and to my surprise he calls. At first I was shitting myself. Did I just run into a monster? How could he put his tourney on the line without one? The cards flip and it's 66 vs. 55. Of course he spikes a 5 and it leaves me crippled. Ironically, the short stack is the one that eliminated me. Such a horrible play on his part. To put your tourney on the line with a short stack and not even pay attention to the situation is pretty typical of low limit players.
HAND #4
This one is pretty typical of how I've been running lately. I know it's a race from the get go, and I don't mind racing at this point. I have been running really cold lately, and when I get a hand, I'm prepared to go with it. So I make a standard raise under the gun with AQ. I get re-raised by a player I have played against numerous times. I know he is capable of making this play with just about any pair and most of the time, he will fold to a three bet shove. So I push, and he calls with JJ. Not so bad, it's a coin flip. I turn a queen, then he gets there on the river. Gotta love it when you are getting nothing but frozen cards.
So, it's been an up and down day. The day started out well, but just got progressively more worse. I couldn't believe how many times I would get a big pair, and some loose idiot would shove, then hit their set. I'm not kidding, I had an overpair to their underpair 6 times, and each time they hit their set. Other than that, 3 out of the 5 times I had KK and got called by a weak ace, and each time an ace hit the flop. KK, QQ, JJ, 10's, nothing was holding and whenever I got AK or AQ, the flop would come 8 high or 3 to a flush. SO hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.
On another note, I made another deep run in the $32,000 Guarantee and made a dumb mistake at the end. I just barely went out before the money. But, what can you do? It just seemed like everybody who called my raises was going to flop the nuts. That's pretty much the way it went today. I raised with AK, the flop comes A-K-10, and of course they called with QJ. The only thing I have to remember, is to play small ball and keep the LAG's at bay.
So time to get my head back in the game, and make a good run. Good luck at the tables.
UPDATE: I played a couple of multi-table tourneys, and I ran like total dog shit. I couldn't get a hand to save my life. Then when I did get a hand, it either didn't connect with the flop or they drew out on me. I went out in both tourneys with two very dumb moves that I shouldn't have made. The first, I raised the big blind and checked the flop, then moved on the turn. I didn't even stop to think about what he might have or whether or not my hand was good. Sure enough, he flopped the nuts, go figure. In the second tourney, I limped in the small blind, the big blind raised, I flat called. The flop came Q-9-8 with two clubs. I had KJ with the jack of clubs. I check called the flop then pushed the turn when another club hit. Sure enough, he had AA with the ace of clubs. I had 3 outs to the straight, but that's it. I shouldn't have made either one of these moves.
In the low limit tourneys you will find so many loose aggro's and calling stations it gets ridiculous, especially if you're not catching any kind of playable hand. You see them showing down K5 and Q6 and winning pots, while you get sucked out on with AK and QQ. Here's a good one for you. I'm in the BB with AK off, and the button raises my blind for the third orbit in a row. Every other time I had 52 and 84 so there wasn't much I could do, because I knew he was the kind of player that overvalued two big cards and would go with it. So I just had to wait. So he raises me again, and I three bet him 2.5X's his raise. He shoves for about 4X's my raise. He has me covered but I know that worst case scenario we're racing. He had K10 off. He lost the pot and I was in really good shape in the tourney, until I pulled the complete moron play. So, I just have to keep my wits and brain in the game. Don't run on auto pilot or try to bluff a player off a hand I know they won't get rid of. Most players just cannot release top pair, no matter what they have. The sheer number of times I saw pots getting jammed only for one guy to show AQ and the other to show A4 or A5 was totally insane.

June Ironman and MTT

I played in the Silver Ironman freeroll last weekend. I finished in the money for the fifth time in a row. I was making a good run in the tourney but eventually went card dead and players were shoving my raises which left me no options. I finally pick up AK and raise. The small blind shoves and I call it off. His 77 held and I was out. I also played in a couple of multi-table tourneys this week.
The tourney last night went horribly. Early in the tourney I just could not pick up a hand. The blinds were at 25/50 and I was sitting on 1500. I pick up AK and a weak passive player limps under the gun. I had him on AJ+ and 6's-10's. So I raise to 200 trying to get it heads up and eliminate anyone else from coming into the pot. It folds around to the limper and he limp-shoves. I have seen a few players do this with AA and KK. However, since I have AK it eliminates some of the possibilities and the odds that he has one of those hands are diminished. Most of the time, whenever I see this play, they show a small pair. So I call of my stack and he shows KK. I guess it was a good play on his part. I was only a 2:1 dog and hit my ace on the river. I did flop an inside straight draw and turned a flush draw, so all was not lost. So I double through and eventually build my stack to about 44,000.
Within 3 hands, I was out and went from the top 25 to out in 104th. The first hand was a basic coin flip situation. Short stack shoved for 8 big blinds, I have AK in the big blind, his 77 held. The very next hand I pick up JJ in the small blind. Another short stack shoves and I call again. He shows AQ and turns a queen. Now I'm one of the shorter stacks. I get K10 suited in the cutoff. I'm the first in the pot and with a stack of 18,000 I raise to 2300 with the blinds at 400/800 with 100 ante. The small blind calls and the flop comes Q-J-4 with the face cards diamonds. I have K10 of diamonds. The small blind checks to me. There is 6300 in the pot, so I bet 4500. He check-raises all in. I had a feeling he didn't have a queen or a jack, I can't explain why, sometimes your instincts will guide you. I just felt that he was making a move with either an underpair or a 4. So I thought I could hit 9 diamonds, 3 kings, 3 10's, 3 aces, or 3 9's. 14 outs would make me a favorite. I had 21 outs to make my hand, which was pretty much half the deck. Even if I could only count the straight and flush draw I would still be a slight favorite. So I call, he shows 77, so I'm about 74% to win. The turn pairs the jack which give me more outs. I can now hit an ace, king, queen, 10, 9, or diamond. A brick hits the river and I'm gone. So minor cash but still frustrating. If I win any of those races I might have been able to make a good run.
The sheer number of loose aggro players I have run into is pretty shocking. I don't mind playing loose aggro players. The problem is when they are hitting decks and flops and you can't get dealt anything. Just to give an example. I have QQ in middle position on a very loose table. Come in for a raise of 3 times the blind. The big blind calls, and the flop comes 664 with two spades. BB checks to me. I'm getting short and decide to push my hand. He check raised me after I put about 1/3 of my chips in the pot. Of course he has K6 off and I was gone. AA lost to AK SOOTED, QQ lost to K6, JJ lost to 45 off, AK lost to A3, and AA lost to QJ on a runner runner two pair. So I'm down a couple of buy-ins, but nothing substantial. I'm going to take a break for the next day or two and get my head together. Hopefully the cards will start to cooperate. I don't need to get AA and KK everyhand to win, I just need the LAG's to miss their longshots. But, that's what I want from them. I want them to put their money in as substantial dogs. If they keep doing that, I will win in the long run. They might suckout once or twice, but I'll win in the end game.

Low Limit Player Profiling

Low limit players have to be some of the worst players I have ever seen. By low limit, I mean, players between the minimum stakes and $30 sit and go's, tournaments up to $50, and cash games up to $200 NL. These players play two card chicken more than they should. I can't count the number of times I saw some really goofy plays. For example, the game was six handed and I get dealt 88. I open for 150 with the blinds at 25/50, I have about 1300 behind. The player to my left shoves for 2120. I have been seeing plays like this for the last few days more than normal. Usually you will find plays like this from time to time. However, I have been running badly over the past few days and just can't seem to find a way to win.
I keep getting cold decked or outdrawn. Which brings me to the reason for this post. I have been trying to not only tag players when I see them play, but I have been profiling low limit players in general. This is a little of what I have come up with. First, low limit players will generally overvalue top pair, no matter what pair it is. They could have a pair of 9's in a raised pot, and they will usually go to the river or go for a check-raise with it. Second, they tend to overvalue very marginal hands and call raises out of position with them. They will play broadway hands, any suited face card, suited connectors, almost any ace, and some suited connectors and gappers for raises. I have seen two big card hands call a lot of raises from early. In fact, I had a guy call me to the river with KQ on a 10-5-2 board while I was holding KK. It's just hilarious.
Low limit players don't think about what you might have. They usually only think about their hand. You can raise with a premium hand or big pair, and they usually won't put you on a hand. They will call and play their hand if they hit a pair or draw. Some players cannot get away from their hand if they hit a primary draw. I have noticed a sort of pattern in low limit players, in general. If they have a primary draw, like a straight or flush draw, they will usually check to you out of position and go for the check-raise. I have noticed that a lot of players love to check-raise all in with these kinds of draws. The problem with these draws is that if that is all you have, you are a 2:1 dog to get there. If you have pair or multiple draws, that is a different story.
On to two card chicken. Two card chicken is what I like to call the game of all-in preflop when you have more than 20 big blinds. It's one thing when the blinds are high and players are getting short. That is the time when you just have to pick a hand a go with it. Those are the times when you will see some very marginal situations. Short stack shoves with A8 and gets called by K5 or Q10. Those situations are understandable. I'm talking about early in the tournament when the stacks are relatively deep and there is a lot of play. You will sometimes see a player open for 3-4 times the blind, and suddenly a player behind him shoves or re-raises. If they re-raise the original raiser pushes in. I have also seen some very weak three bets and some very weak shoves early in tournaments.
Finally, I have noticed that low limit players play sit and go's and tournaments in some very wrong ways. They usually play sit and go's too loose in the beginning stages and too tight in the end. Or they will play too tight in the middle and just start shoving marginal hands when it starts to get short. Just watch them and you will know what they are doing. In tournaments, I have noticed that if the bad players get to the later stages, they usually play marginal hands in some really bad spots. Most of the field by the end stages are solid players and some loose aggressive players. But I saw some very weak plays by a number of players who just kept getting very lucky to stay in the tourney. So anywho, I'm having a rough week and just need to get my game back. I'll get there.

Final Table $17,000 Guarantee

I made the final table of the $17,000 Guarantee tonight. From the start of the tourney, I was playing my typical small ball style. I didn't want to get into too many difficult situations early, so I tried to keep pots small and control the action when I was in the hand. My philosophy is that when the blinds are small, you should play pretty tight. I'm usually waiting for a big hand, and looking to build a stack over the first few levels. I'll take some drawing hands to the turn with the right odds, and hopefully hit my draws. If I have more than 15 outs I will usually play my hand very aggressively and try to win it on the flop and not wait for the draw.
So back to tonight. It was early in the tourney and I pick up AA. I hate getting aces in the early stages of a tournament. Don't get me wrong, I'm not folding, but I know that most of the players early in a tournament are playing really loose and are usually very weak if they are calling big bets and raises. So I raise to 120 with the blinds at 15/30. I get three callers, which I was expecting. The flop came K-10-6 with two diamonds. Both blinds check to me, so I fire 320. I want to find out who is drawing, and who has a real hand. The button calls and the big blind calls, the small blind folds. So I have a little more information on the hand. I put the big blind on a decent king, like KJ, KQ, maybe K9, or a marginal 10. I put the small blind on the very typical flush draw or straight draw. So I figure as long as another paint card, heart, ace, or nine hits the board, I figure I'm probably in good shape. Just my luck, the 4 of diamonds peels off on the turn. The blind checks, so I check behind. Suddenly the button checks as well. So now I knew the button probably did not have the flush. He was the kind of player that would bet when he hit his hand. So unless he is slow playing the nut flush on the turn, again, I figure I'm probably good. The river brings a 3 of clubs. Now the big blind bets about 1/2 the pot. I have a quandry now. I know the rags didn't help his hand, so he probably has a naked king. But what about the button? If I call and he raises, I'm done with the hand, but at the same time, I can't get any equity from my read. So I decide to take the gamblers route. I flat call, and decide that if the button makes a move I'm going to fold. The button folds, and the big blind shows KQ of hearts. Top pair with no draw and a decent kicker.
From there, I slowly built my stack to about 5,000. I was rolling along and playing position and my opponents' well. Just to put the tourney in perspective. I played a total of 447 hands and had AA once, KK once, AK 3 times, and AQ 4 times. I had a few suited connectors and some small pairs, but for the most part, it was a hot and cold run. I would hit a hand then go card dead. Another key hand was much later in the tourney. We were down to about 60 players. I'm in the big blind with K10 off. The player UTG min raises, mistake number 1. He gets 5 callers, so it comes around to me. The blinds were 500/1000 and I'm sitting on about 27,000. There is 11,000 plus the antes, and it's costing me 1,000 to call. There is not one single hand that I could fold for the price I'm getting. So I flat call. The flop hits me hard. It comes K-10-7 with two clubs. The small blind bets 1/2 the pot, and with that many players left behind I only have one choice. I shove for the rest of my chips and the player UTG re-raises all-in. I know what he has, I'm sure you can figure out what he has too. Of course he has AA, mistake number 2. He gives me protection, the small blind folds and I win with two pair on an unimproved board. That jumps me up to the ranks of the chip leaders and I have a healthy stack I can play with. The reason why I consider these mistakes are very simple. For one, to min raise under the gun, you are just begging for a waterfall of calls, which is what happened. As soon as the first person calls, everybody else thinks they are priced in. So AA has to dodge all kinds of hands. In a 5 or 6 way pot, you can go ahead and toss your AA out the window. For the other reason, when the action after the flop goes bet, raise, you have to ask yourself what possible hands could have called. When the board is coordinated like it was, you need to re-evaluate what kinds of hands could have called. If the board was 10-6-2, that would be a different story. But with a board of K-10-7, or the dreaded 9-10-J, you have to proceed cautiously with one pair.
So anywho. We get down to 10 handed and on the final table bubble. I haven't seen two cards that are even in the same area code, much less even playable. I like to play aggressively and play small ball. But when my raises are getting shoved, I'm getting short and can't pick up a hand there's nothing I can do. So we get to the final table and I'm sitting 6th in chips. I'm prepared for a battle and looking to play some flops. All was going well. We lost a couple of players pretty early on and I'm in the big blind. For some reason, I played this hand horribly and ended up finishing 7th.
The hand came down like this. I have 85 off and the small blind limps. I was talking to my friend on the phone and even said outloud to him, "I should raise him to find out how much he likes his hand." He was playing really tight passive, so I knew his limp was weak. He wasn't limping a monster to try and trap. He was a pretty straightforward player. He would raise with a decent hand and limp trash and marginal hands. So I made a mistake and checked it down. The flop came Q-8-2 with two hearts. He bet the minimum on the flop. I thought he might have had a queen, but thought if a scare card came on the turn I could get him to fold. A 5 hit the turn. He bet half the pot now. Again, I thought he might have a naked queen or maybe a draw, but I thought my two pair would be good. I pushed on him and he quickly called my all-in. I knew I was in trouble. Of course, thanks to my good luck lately, he turns over Q2 for a flopped two pair. I'm out in 7th for a decent, but not good score.
I played in the 50-50 the other night and made a good run as well. I ended up finishing 51st out of 981. I've only played a handful of multi-tables this week, so not bad for the week I've had so far. Hopefully tomorrow will go much better and I'll final table another one. I just have to keep playing small ball and let the LAG's hang themselves.