Week in Review

So this week has gone pretty well so far. I reviewed my hand history for the past few days, and was shocked how many times I had to get lucky to win, and how many times I got unlucky to lose big pots. A couple of days ago I had an 80% win at showdown rate, and only cashed for 2 BB's. Then tonight I run at 8.3 BB/100. Go figure. Another funny stat is how consistent my stats have been. I've been running a 16/8 all month long with about a 3.6% 3 bet. My aggression factor has been up around 4 and down to about 1.8 at times, but pretty consistent for the most part. So the month has gone pretty well. I'm up about $300, not including rakeback. Not too bad, especially since I had a couple of -$250 days.

Here were my goals for this month:
1. Play at least 3 sessions per week, hopefully more so I can get my ironman status back. I haven't qualified for ironman since July.
*I've played every day, some days I only played enough to get 1 point to get the Ironman One a Day bonus. But I have put in at least 3 good sessions a week, so mission accomplished.
2. Get to the next level by March.
*Sadly, I don't think I'll get to the next level by March. Maybe if I can make a late push and not get coolered I might be able to get there. I did notice that I have had to get very lucky to win some pots, just amazing how a lot of players who have horrific stats always seem to have strong hands against me. One guy was running 65/20 and beat me out of some pots with trash. Oh well.
3. Lower the number of bluffs I make and stay out of marginal positions OOP.
*I've done much better on this one lately. Early in the month I was bluffing way too much and should have folded some hands that in retrospect was telegraphed that I was beat.
4. Write at least 1 blog post per week, and upload some hands and graphs.
*Easily accomplished.
5. Finish reading Championship Omaha, Bill Chen's book on poker math, and Owning the Dragon.
*I finished reading Championship Omaha, and started Bill Chen's book. However, I got distracted with Power Hold'em again. I'm almost done with that one, so then it will be back to Bill Chen's. 1/2 accomplished?
6. Play more than 20,000 hands in February.
*With a couple of days left, I should be able to get this one done. I'm at about 18,200 right now, and am pretty sure I'll put in at least two good sessions this week. So that one should be pretty easy to get.

On the poker front, I find it hilarious that there are so many short stackers online lately. I have made it my goal to not give them any action unless I have at least AA or KK. I refuse to get into race situations with AK or small pairs. Sure they can steal my blinds, but if I notice they start getting LAGGY, then I adjust. But for the most part I don't give them any action. I also find it funny how many people with decent stacks call down with underpairs when there is a QJ or K10, or the infamous 910J flop. I have seen it so many times. That and players that float you on the flop with third pair or just two overs. That happened so many times. One time in particular, I flopped bottom two pair with 78. Flop came 1087, so I led out, and got called. Turn brought a king. I thought it might have hit him and went for the check raise, he just called. River brought another king, I checked, he shoved. Easy fold. There's nothing I can beat. Of course he showed down AK. The flop call was iffy, but he had to know that he was in deep with the check raise on the turn, but most players in low limit don't think about these things. They think, "I hit my card, I'm good".

On a side note, there was one guy I had some notes on and knew he was pretty LAGGY, especially when he thought you were weak. He would raise limpers with 66+, A10+, and pretty much any broadway hand. So I limp in with K10 in the cutoff, he's on the button. I knew he had position on me but didn't mind, we were playing deep. Of course he instantly pots it, I just flat. The flop came down 3410 with two spades, and I have the K10 of spades. I check it to him, I didn't want to take the lead away because he CBETs almost 100% of the time. I decided to check raise him small to make it look like a draw. He calls. Turn brings a 2 and I lead out, he calls. River brings a blank and I bet about 2/3 pot, the flush card didn't hit and he instantly shoves on me. I had to think through the hand for a second. If he had A10, a set, or an overpair he would have called the flop raise, but he would have pushed the turn with the flush draw out there. So I knew he didn't have those hands. Next, the possibility that he rivered a set...highly unlikely, especially because the way the hand played out. SO I called and he showed 88. Then he started ranting about how I'm the guy that calls down and doesn't fold...blah blah blah. Look through the hand again and you'll see that he was a huge dog on the flop and decided to stick around.

So some things to consider when you're playing in the low limits.
1. Make sure to watch your opponents. Some play uber nitty, and others play super LAGGY. Get to the players types and what they are capable of. What do they raise with from the various positions? Do they play tight up front and loosen up closer to the button? Do they steal too much or do they just nut peddle?
2. Find out who the calling stations and the semi bluffers are. I saw so many players call down with really weak hands, and others check raise all in with various draws. Some weren't that bad a play, with hands like combination draws or two overs and a flush draw. But for the most part, find out who actually knows how to play post flop.
3. Watch their betting patterns. Most players at the low limits will telegraph their hands with their bets. They will bet small or min with weak hands, while others will shove for 4X pot with strong hands. In my experience the donk bet is usually a big sign of weakness. I don't know how many times I would get bet into from the BB on a pretty dry board, simply raise their bet and watch them fold.
4. Find out who likes to float you on the flop. Some players will float you with all kinds of garbage. Third pair, weak draws, and sometimes absolutely nothing. So find out who the floaters are. If you find yourself in a pot with somebody who likes to float, check your strong hands, and some of your weak hands into them and see what they do. If they have position look to get more info on the turn and keep the pot small. If they are out of position, I have found that if you check the flop, unless it's a wet board, wait for the turn.
5. Finally, most players don't think about your hand, so don't telegraph the strength of your hand with your preflop raise. I saw some players raise 3.5X with marginal hands, and 6+X with premium hands. I always make the same raise, unless there is a preflop raiser in front of me or any limpers. For instance, if I'm first in the pot I make it 3X everytime. I do this with everything from pairs, suited connectors, premium hands, doesn't really matter. I look to play flops, preferably in position. If there is 1 or 2 limpers in front of me, then I raise anywhere from 4.5-6.5X depending on position, hand strength, and who is ahead of me. Finally, if a loose player raises in front of me, let's say the pot 3.5X, I re-raise them to 9.5-10.5X. I have found these are pretty good raises to narrow down their hands. If a TAG raises in front of me, and I'm in late position or the blinds and can't be re-raised I look to play the hands that aren't easily dominated and can hit flops hard. Hands like small pairs, suited connectors are good for this. They are hands that are hit or miss. You'll either flop strong or not and if you don't you can get away from it. Think about it for a second. If you call a TAG with JJ and the flop comes 9 high you may get stuck in the hand. With 22-JJ I'm hoping to flop a set, if not, then I try to keep the pot small. I'll probably call a flop bet, but if another blank comes and he's still firing, it's probably time to get out. Again, it's all read dependent and knowing your opponents. However, if I have 56 SOOTED, and the flop comes 55, 66, 56 or gives me a strong combo draw with a pair, it might be time to get the money in.

So this month is almost over, and it's time to get my goals together for next month. Not sure what my goals are going to be yet, but I'll come up with something. The one thing I do know is that I need to put in some serious volume if I want to make it to the next level. That and stop getting into pots where I have to get lucky, that and not get unlucky. Trust your reads Jay, don't bluff as much, and look to value bet more. If they check call the flop and check the turn, look to either defensive bet or value bet the river. Don't let them control the action and bluff you on the river.

On the life front, the job is horrible...lol. I need to find my career path. Please LORD help me find my way in this world. My wife and I are raising our little puppy, I just wish she would get over this teething phase. I don't know if my hands and feet can take anymore. She is adorable and is getting big fast. She was 5 lbs. when we got her and is up to 22 lbs. in just a little over 2 months. My wife is almost done with her classes, so that will be great for her. I know she has been really stressed out lately, so next week will be a big relief for her. We are heading down to Arizona for Mariners spring training next month. It will be my first trip down, so that is going to be a lot of fun. Other than that, not much else going on. Life is great, now I just have to get my poker life together. GL at the tables.