01 May 2008

Brutal

I'm on a really brutal run right now. Not in the good way either. Over the past 13 sit and go's, I've cashed in 2. One second place, and one third place. I've dropped around 10 buy-ins so far. What has been so brutal, is that I'm just not getting there on big draws, my big hands are not holding up, and I've been getting called by some really loose players. Some of the plays that were made against me, nothing could be done. Here's an example. I'm on the button with AA. A LAG makes a minimum raise in middle position and gets two callers. With so many players in the pot, I re-raised the pot. The small blind calls, as does the LAG. The flop comes 2-2-7 with two spades. The small blind bets out about 1/4th the pot. I re-raise all in, he calls. He has KK, I have AA....sweet. NO. He gets runner runner to catch the flush and I'm out. So nothing I could really do. Could he fold KK in that spot? Probably not. I'm sure he put me on a pretty big range, like 88+, AQ+.
I've had JJ 4 times and didn't win one pot with them. QQ 5 times, again didn't win one pot. AK suited and off about 22 times and won with it about 40% of the time. AA 6 times and only won 3 times with them. However, I did have KK 5 times and won 100% of the time. So, I kept getting my money in good and pounced on weakness a ton of times, but was up against some really loose calls.
The tournament I just played was another example of some pretty loose play. When we got to 5 handed, one guy kept pushing in for about 20 times the blind. I know he's not that strong most of the time, but knowing my luck when I made a move at him he would have AA or KK. I had made my standard small ball raise a few times and got re-raised in by the same player. So I finally pick up AA and make the exact same raise. He pushes in again. I call, of course. He has KJ suited. He catches a jack and bricks the rest. So now I'm sitting second, and he's short. The next hand I have A9 off and he pushes in again. I call, knowing I'm probably ahead. He has K6 off. He bricks out and is gone. The same types of plays pretty much go the rest of the way, I finished second.
It's just amazing how many times I saw people raise with nothing and get there on the end with all kinds of funky runner, runner combinations. Here's another example. I'm in the BB with KJ off and 5 limpers. It's early in the tourney with the blinds at 20/40 so there's no need to get crazy. The flop comes K-Q-10 rainbow. Top pair and open ended, I probably have the best hand or at least a draw to it. So I bet 2/3 of the pot. The player right behind me raises the minimum. Everyone else folds, I just call. The 7 of spades comes on the turn, putting two spades on board. I check, he bets the pot, I check-raise all in. He calls and shows A6 of spades. A spade hit the river and I was crippled. Little analysis on this hand. On the flop, when he raised, he only had 3 outs. So he was about 12% when he raised. I knew he didn't have two pair or the straight, I had been watching the hands he had been showing down. Plus he had been playing just about every hand. When the spade came on the turn, I thought he might have had a flush draw. So if I put him on the nut flush draw, he would have 11 outs. About 20% in the hand. Not bad, but I'll take a 3:1 advantage with one card to come every day of the week. He got there, but I eventually came back to get a respectable stack. I was eliminated in 4th in this tourney when my A10 went down to KQ. I pushed in for about 8 times the blind, and the BB who only had about 200 more than me called and flopped two pair. Oh well, kept getting it in good, but just couldn't do anything.
So hopefully this dry run will end soon. Maybe the cards will start cooperating and I can finally stop getting drawn out on by some pretty loose calls. Just have to stick to my mantra, get it in with the best and that's all you can do.

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