Hell of a Run

I don't want to jinx myself, but I am on one hell of a run right now. I have cashed in a little over 60% of the sit and go's I've played in, and have run well at the cash tables. I have 4 days completed so far in the new Ironman challenge, only 16 more days for the silver level, and 21 more days for the gold level. I'll just have to make sure I stay on top of my points and get enough everyday I can. About a week ago, I had a horrible night and dropped a little over 10 buy-ins. However, over the past few days, I have won all the buy-ins back plus some. I have added quite a bit to my bankroll, and if I really wanted to, I could probably jump stakes again. However, I am going to stay at the current level, in case variance strikes over the next few days. It's inevitable and it will happen sometime. No matter how good you are, or think you are, variance will get you.
I am going to take a couple of shots at some FTOPS satelites and see if I can win entry. Hopefully all will go well. I will also be playing more token and tournament satelites. One of my goals in poker has been to play in the FTOPS series. Now that my bankroll is getting healthy, I am going to take some shots at winning an entry. I think if I get into the FTOPS I will do well.
A brief note about the tournaments I just played in. I played 4 sit and go's and cashed in three of them. In fact, I won all three. The one I didn't cash in, I went out 7th, and it was pretty horrible too. I had AA and came in for a raise of 340 with the blinds at 60/120. The button called, and the flop came J-10-9 with three spades. I only had about 1500 left, and led out for 600 into a pot of 860. The button shoved in, and I took my time. I only had 900 left, so I really couldn't fold at this point. I called, and he showed 77, but he had the 7 of spades. I had A of hearts and the A of clubs....of course a spade hit the river and I was gone. What can you do.
In the other tourneys though, I played brilliantly. I was short stacked when we got to 5 handed in two of the tourneys. Mainly because the tables were playing incredibly insane. It's unbelievable how bad some of the players online are. But I'm not going to say anything to them, because I want them to continue to play badly. If they improve their game, it will only make the games tougher. I would rather play against LAG's than very solid TAG's. I made a couple of moves late in the tourneys to get my hands on some chips, and stole the blinds when I could. I made a great play against a late position raiser. I was in the BB with 97 suited, and the button raised. He was extremely loose and had a very specific betting pattern that I discovered. He would minimum raise with trash and very marginal hands. He would raise 3 times with a decent ace, two big suited cards, and pairs. And he would raise 4 times the blind with premium hands. At least that was my observation. So anyway, I called his min raise, and the flop came J-6-3. I checked it to him with no pair and no draw. He bet the pot on the flop. Another observation I had on him, was that his c-bets were always the pot. I saw him bet half the pot with a big hand, but now he is c-betting the size of the pot. So I check-raised him from 400 to 1100. He folded...I think it was a good play against an overly aggressive player. The key is to stay alert to your opponents, and watch for any patterns you might find.
That is a huge key to success in poker. Noting players tendencies and patterns. Betting patterns are an incredible tell. That is why I don't adjust my bets and raises by much. I never minimum raise with aces and I am very rarely the first open limper. I change my raises by position, that is all. I do not change the size of my raise by strength of hand. If I'm in early position, I will raise from 2.5-2.7X's the BB. If I'm in middle position, I will raise from 2.7-3X's the BB. From late position I will raise from 2.7-3.5X's the blind. The only reason I vary my raise by position is because of position. When I am in early position, I am usually opening with some pretty strong hands. If I raise 3-4 times the blind from early, I usually won't get any action. However, if I open for a smaller raise, I tend to get a little more action. I don't mind that because I'm starting with a better hand than the callers, and can play after the flop. From middle position I make a little bigger raise because of fewer opponents behind me and to get a little more money in the pot. Pretty much the same reason from late position, only now I have the added strength of being able to act on my hand last after the flop. So with the added strength of having position on my opponents, and more money in the pot, it makes raising from late position even more powerful.
One thing you have to take note of, is the players who have acted in front of you and what they have done. If there is an open limper with a couple of callers, I will try to evaluate the strength of my hand in relation to the limpers. I don't like raising limpers from middle position, because of a couple reasons. First, a late player or one of the blinds may make a play at you and you won't get to see a flop. Second, if you raise from middle position with a marginal hand, players that call your raise are likely to be starting with the better hand. In my opinion, it is better to limp along with the others with a hand that plays well hot and cold, and is unlikely to be dominated. Just my thought.